What Happened to Swine Flu?

In April and May, everyone was panicking about swine flu. Now, in June, CNN's website doesn't even mention it. Where did it go? Scientists reported back in May that the virus was a relatively mild strain of H1N1 influenza, and though the disease has spread worldwide, less than 200 people have died, which suggests that the disease is probably not the apocalyptic threat the media once thought it was.

The BBC swine flu statistics show that only 25,395 cases were officially reported worldwide as of June 8, 2009. The number of actual cases might be much larger, but the fact that a relatively small number of cases are actually reported indicates the mildness of the infection. Though it is true that the virus has caused fatalities, it is worth noting that seasonal influenza already claims 250,000 to 500,000 lives each year.

According to the BBC, "initial indications suggest there is nothing about the genetic make-up of the new virus which is a cause for particular concern." It is far less dangerous than the threat of avian flu, which has worried scientists for the past decade. Avian flu, or H5N1 flu, causes a much more severe infection and is more likely to be fatal. However, it has rarely resulted in human-to-human transmission, a major difference from swine flu.

The chances of H1N1 swine flu combining with a more lethal virus like H5N1 avian flu are only as likely as any other mutation event. The spread of swine flu mostly shows that pandemics are unpredictable—nobody expected the next flu pandemic to come from pigs, as everyone was watching avian flu instead.

It is probable that swine flu will cause a higher rate of fatalities later in the year, as the virus tends to thrive in cold conditions. With the southern hemisphere entering its winter, it is likely that more cases will start to appear there. However, even Mexico, where the disease started and most of the deaths have occurred, seems to have overestimated the danger of the disease. In early may it cut its estimate of the number of swine flu-related fatalities by about 75 deaths.

Scientists will still be watching swine flu carefully, and again, it is likely that there will be more fatalities, but the panic seems to be largely over and the disease does not appear to be any more dangerous than regular seasonal influenza. If you believe you have swine flu, call your doctor for a consultation, but don't panic. Chances are, you'll be okay.