Recent nuclear and ballistic missile tests have left observers of the occasionally compliant North Korea wondering what exactly its leader, Kim Jong-il, is hoping to accomplish. A reclusive leader of an isolationist regime, Kim has had a history of calling attention to North Korea through aggressive acts in order to bargain for international aid. Nobody, however, is sure why he has chosen to act more belligerent than usual as of late. He is unpredictable and quite possibly dangerous.
Kim Jong-il's regime, and that of his father Kim Il-sung, have kept North Korea isolated and impoverished for decades. It has been technically at war with South Korea even after the end of the Korean War, since no peace treaty was signed in 1953, and it may be entering a new formal war, if recent missile tests are anything to judge by. The border between the two Koreas is one of the most militarized in the world.
In the midst of this, China has been North Korea's closest supporter, but China's participation in a recent unanimous UN Security Council condemnation of North Korea's second nuclear test suggests that China's stance might be changing. The Soviet Union stopped supporting North Korea in 1991, shortly before its own breakup, and a BBC report on North Korea suggests that China might soon do the same.
Kim, a man with odd habits who is either totally insane or ferociously cunning, has proven himself to be unpredictable, prompting the last two US presidential administrations to provide economic aid. This has had little effect on both North Korea's policies and its economy. The country depends mostly on China for food aid, and depends on its unpredictable and aggressive nature to draw concessions from other states.
North Korea's recent aggressive acts, including long-range missile launches, an underground nuclear test, and pulling out of six-nation disarmament talks, are within the realm of normalcy for the country. They are, however, more militaristic than usual, suggesting that they are either a cover for internal turbulence related to Kim's succession, or a new attempt to demand international support in exchange for disarmament, says Korea analyst Aidan Foster-Carter.
Either way, North Korea is unlikely to help itself through military force. Though it has a million-strong standing army, international condemnation and economic punishment will at least not be positive for the country, and may hurt it if the sanctions are truly effective.
Adding to the difficulty is the case of the American journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee, who were sentenced to twelve years hard labor after ostensibly entering North Korea illegally. Some reports have suggested that they were actually abducted. North Korea seems likely to use their release as a negotiating tool along with nuclear disarmament to force South Korea and the US to take actions they would not otherwise take.
However, President Obama has said the US will not "continue a policy of rewarding provocation." Negotiators will therefore be running a dangerous obstacle course as they attempt to convince North Korea to be reasonable. While North Korea's missiles do not currently have the ability to carry nuclear warheads, its longest-range missiles can reach parts of the US, meaning the US will be taking its threats quite seriously.
It is quite clear, therefore, that North Korea is doing nothing to help itself at the moment. Its show of force will continue to draw criticism and economic retaliation internationally, though everyone hopes it will not lead to war. However, Kim Jong-il's unpredictability, his eventual succession, and North Korea's largely unknown nuclear capabilities, put everything within the realm of possibility. There will be no easy fix.
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