UN scientists released their latest findings on climate change in an update to the 2007 research that established human-caused climate change as the scientific consensus. The new information suggests that severe climate change will still occur even if developed nations adopt aggressive carbon emission cuts. This report, which compiles the accumulated knowledge of about 400 peer-reviewed climate studies, shows that the average global temperature will increase by 6 degrees by the end of the century even if developed nations implement an 80% reduction in their greenhouse gas generation.
The report attributes 2° of that increase to the emissions of China alone. The projected temperature change could be worse if the United States fails to pass its climate bill, and if a cohesive agreement isn't met at Copenhagen, sources say.
The Associated Press referenced the research of Robert Corell, one of the U.S. climate scientists who oversaw the update, and found that even if developing nations took aggressive climate actions, a more than 3°F increase is inevitable. According to climate scientists at NASA, the Earth's average temperature has risen about 1.4 degrees since the industrial revolution—the hottest year in the United States being 1934.
"[Global warming is] accelerating in ways that we are not anticipating," said Corell. The rapid melts in Greenland and Antarctica are expected to grow three times faster than were predicted in 2007's global warming study. In addition to sea level rise, the smaller mass of reflective ice will increase the amount of heat our oceans can absorb, creating a sympathetic cycle of warming.
Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-MA), co-author of America's climate bill, warns that this report isn't a reason to disregard emissions cuts. "As sobering as this report is, it is not the worst case scenario," said Rep. Markey. "That would be if the world does nothing and allows heat-trapping pollution to continue to spew unchecked into the atmosphere."
The new research echoes the "unequivocal" role that human pollution has on the global climate from the last report, but presents a more sophisticated understanding about how the world's systems work. For example, the report's analysis of how glacial systems work moves away from old theories about surface ice melting and refreezing to crack off chunks of glacier. Instead, the report promotes a deeper understanding about how natural current changes bring warm water to sub-surface ice and soil, and how layers of permafrost can thaw and provide an inhospitable base for traveling glaciers. UN scientists also found that ozone depletion decreased polar temperatures, and that glaciers were expected to experience more heat and faster melts after the ozone layer makes a full recovery.
It is unclear how this more concrete understanding of the world's environmental systems will influence pending climate change legislation and talks at Copenhagen.
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