Even with Cap and Trade, Report Suggests Continued Fossil Fuel Dependence

According to the environmental research group Black & Veatch, the way we power our homes in 2034 will be nearly identical to today. Coal and natural gas are still expected to provide well over half of our nation's energy needs, while modest increases in nuclear and renewable energy will allow for a slight drop in American greenhouse gas generation.

Mark Griffith of Black & Veatch said that even if Cap and Trade passed, it would have very little impact by 2034. “We’re not assuming that greenhouse gas legislation leads to a immediate shutdown of all coal plants, nor does it lead to going directly to natural gas or renewables,” said Griffith.

Griffith did state, however, that regulation requiring states to generate a percentage of their energy with renewables could boost that number. While California will almost certainly miss their 33% capacity by 2020 goal, they could hit their target sometime in the decade afterward.

The growth of natural gas as a transportation fuel in America and technological breakthroughs are other question marks looming over the Black & Veatch report. The location-sensitive nature of solar and wind power, along with their meager ability to keep pace with increasing demand, are the primary reasons that renewable gains are expected to be small. Unlike fossil fuel and nuclear plants, wind turbines and solar arrays must be built in areas that are dozens of miles away from major transmission lines, adding cost that intensifies an already difficult payback period. Griffith states that requiring states to create renewable energy projects may be the best path to take in order to avoid his firm's bleak outlook.