DOE Sponsored Research: Relevant Electric Cars are Decades Away, Still Expensive

According to the latest research from the National Research Council, the technology behind vehicle electrification is still decades away from being significant, both macroeconomically and from a consumer perspective. According to the report, the market for hybrids and electric vehicles has begun to stall, and billions in government aid will be needed to keep the market afloat until manufacturers can make the breakthroughs needed to make the products relevant to consumers and eventually the global economy. The National Academy of Sciences found that plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles will cost an average of $18,000 more than their gasoline and diesel fueled competitors, requiring hundreds of thousands of miles logged on a single vehicle to break even with fuel savings.

According to the report, there is little likelihood that costs will decrease. As the high-performance batteries used in electric vehicles have been in development since the 1970s for use in power tools, cell phones, and laptops, technological gains in the last decade have slowed to marginal levels. While "boutique" batteries have been created using rare earth metals, the mass of this material estimated to exist in the earth's crust is insufficient for a consumer application. The report asserts that through decades of heavy government subsidy, there may be as many as 13 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030, representing about 2.5% of all vehicles in America.

The National Research Council also found that a majority of consumers would need to upgrade their home's electrical system to accommodate a plug-in hybrid, "which could cost more than $1,000." Despite these short-term expenditures, the report states that plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles could have a meaningful impact on oil imports by 2050, reducing daily oil imports by as much as 2%. As carbon emissions are concerned, the National Research Council found that an intensive manufacturing process makes plug-ins a poor choice when compared to a traditional hybrid. The report suggested that large scale implementation of carbon capture and storage at coal plants and a sharp uptick of nuclear power could make plug-in hybrids a more climate friendly option.

The report, which was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Academy of Sciences, asserts that energy security will come from improving the fuel economy of conventional vehicles and taking a broad approach to researching alternative fuels such as biofuel, hydrogen, and electricity. Earlier this week, Toyota announced that the Prius plug-in hybrid, which was supposed to release in the US this summer, will be delayed until "at least 2011" when Toyota currently plans to begin production. The GM Volt has not yet been given a release date, but GM execs say they are rushing to meet a November 2010 deadline. The Nissan LEAF all-electric vehicle is not expected to see American shores until 2012.