COP15 Summit: Nations Rally Behind Three Competing Treaties

Fresh data from the International Weather Service shows that this decade may end up being the warmest one on record, raising tension in negations between developed nations and developing countries in low-lying or rapidly-desertifying areas. Delegates from these nations, like Sudan's Lumuba Di-Aping, criticized the $10 billion jointly offered by the US, EU, Canada, Japan, and Australia, saying "ten billion will not buy developing countries' citizens enough coffins."

Di-Aping asserted that developed nations were offering such small amounts in order improve the chances that developing nations would sign the recently-leaked alternative treaty. The alternative treaty appears to give developing nations access to a much larger pool of funds, but it was drafted to be administered by the World Bank and distributed under various preconditions. Also under the so-called "Danish text", developed nations, countries like the United States, would be allowed emissions of roughly twice that of developing nations.

China Introduces Third COP15 Treaty to Fight "Danish Text"

In an apparent answer to the Danish text, the Chinese delegation is said to be drafting a document that would extend the Kyoto protocol, which places 100% of the emissions cuts on the 37 most developed nations, but does not provide financing for disaster mitigation.

Currently, Clinton-era law prevents the US Congress from ratifying the Kyoto extension or any other "two-track" treaty that does not impose fair emissions cuts on emerging economies, creating what some suggest is an impossible situation for American negotiators.

Neither the Danish text or the Chinese text have been submitted into the official Copenhagen document registry. Delegates are working out the details for their competing treaties behind closed doors and alluding to them when debating in the master forum. This has split the debate into what might be described as three faction (though others might exist as well) with three different proposals:

1. The original treaty, which has been negotiated for the last two years and is primarily advocated by the EU. This document calls for deep emission cuts from developed countries, a commitment of action from the developing world, a UN-administered aid-fund exceeding $500 billion to help the most vulnerable nations, and the establishment of a global carbon market that allows corporations to develop low-carbon projects in developing countries.
2. The alternative treaty, or Danish text, which some suggest was drafted by the United States, the United Kingdom (a member country of the EU), and Denmark. This treaty would cap emissions per capita on all nations, but allow industrial nations to emit about twice as much, per capita.
3. The Chinese text would extend the Kyoto protocol. This would require the most developed nations to cut their carbon emissions and purchase offsets from other countries that emit below 1990 levels. Developing countries are not held to any emissions targets. The Kyoto protocol failed to reduce emissions is most of the countries that ratified it.

How COP15 must Succeed Where Kyoto Failed

The pre-conference Copenhagen Consensus Report said that the Kyoto protocol could dampen the effects of global warming. Under the Kyoto protocol, countries like the United Kingdom reduced their GHG emissions by 14%, while countries like Spain and Portugal's greenhouse gas emissions increased by 49% and 41%, respectively. The United States, which did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, increased its greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, about half of the worldwide 38% GHG growth average. China and India, who signed the Kyoto protocol but were not effected by it, grew their GHG emissions by 150% and 103%, respectively.

Environmental groups like Friends of the Earth have criticized the delegation at Copenhagen for continually moving the discussion away from the environment and toward issues of business and politics. "The Obama administration's role in what appears to be a secret plot to strong-arm through an agreement forcing poor countries to bear much of the cost of reducing emissions is despicable," said FotE president Erich Pica. "President Obama cannot lead the world while wheeling and dealing from the back-room. These are supposed to be negotiations about how to solve a problem, not about how to appease the United States government."

The COP15 Climate Change summit in Copenhagen continues through December 18th. Check back often for live updates as we cover the press briefings that reveal whats happening behind closed doors.